There is a strong relationship between the depth of a throw and the likelihood of drawing DPI. My feeling is that, if a team calls a draw play on 3rd and very long, and they get 15 yards or more, then that's a good result, even if they haven't gotten a 1st down.
Punting from the 20 on 4th and 10 is much better than punting from the 5 on 4th and 35.What do the consequential probabilities from opposing field position say about it?I do think the data would have a bias to passes actually thrown, a certain number of passes intended to be at the sticks or beyond may have been destined to fail and instead are not thrown or checked down somewhere else... there is probably no way to know, but the success rate is going to already include the fact that the pass was actually attempted...Right, hypothetically you could have a selection effect story where:-When guys get open and the QB has time to throw, the pass is thrown to the sticks and has a high success rate (but other distances might also have had a high success rate given these circumstances)-When guys don't get open and/or the QB is pressured, the pass is thrown short to the safety valve and has a low success rate (but other distances might also have had a low success rate given these circumstances)It would be possible to try to correct for this by doing a little modeling on the choice to throw long or short (or eg various matching/weighting approaches), but I've never seen anybody in the sports analytics world doing something like a Heckman selection model or analogous techniques to correct for selection bias.That's probably not the only selection bias going on here. This begs the question, what really is the difference between a 40-yard interception on third down and a 40-yard punt on fourth down? )Anyway, I agree heartily with the admonition to go for the sticks. That is probably a bit low for play calls with longer primary targets, but it is hard to say how much. Given their conversion rates, it seems like a risk teams could be taking more often. Based on trust with your quarterback and coordinator you also have built-in shot plays with your H and your F on bullet routes.This third and short-medium, big alert, play is great against all the possible looks for this down and distance. As for the common fan or football fanatic, I would be willing to bet your favorite college or pro team run these 3 plays consistently, and now you can be the smartest person at the tailgate.Tim Jenkins is the Founder & CEO of Jenkins Elite. The average time until a sack in the NFL is over 4 seconds, which is significantly longer than the average time until pass.We're not suggesting that we ignore the available data. No. Neither was converted. "I think many fumble/sacks are unavoidable - quick pressure before the QB can pull down and protect the ball. The underlying assumption is that a 10-yard throw on third-and-15 is much different than a 10-yard throw on third-and-10. Defensive pass interference (DPI) is another part of the equation. To look at this another way, the worst-case scenario on a 40-yard throw on third-and-long is an interception, which has an average Expected Points Added (EPA) value of -1.1. Third-and-one because it would be the third play of the series and they would still need one yard to get a first down. From the time the ball is snapped (put into play), to the time the play is whistled over by the If they make the ten yards needed within four downs, they are given a new set of downs. We need to look at what did happen to inform us on what could happen or we are relying on judgement and intuition to design a strategy.I'd be curious to see some evidence for that. But the turnover rate tripled!
By Brian Burke. If the defense sends 8 rushers, and leaves the 3 DBs deep, the slant is probably the only guy who'll come open before the QB gets drilled into the turf. You're thinking of it like it's a zero sum game, where you say "okay, defend deep/target deep has a 10% success, defend deep/target short has a 50% success, defend short/target deep has an 80% success, and defend short/target short has a 20% success", and then you obviously reach an equilibrium where the payoffs for target short/target deep are equal.But there's no reason to believe that's the way it works - "throw deep" could be the *result*, not the *choice*, in which case you're looking at totally the wrong thing. For instance, there were a total of 1,309 third-and-10 attempts by this method, and teams converted 373 of them (28.5%). Just because the team ended up targeting the curl does not mean that the quarterback's first read wasn't down the field. Third-and-one because it would be the third play of the series and they would still need one yard to get a first down. That's a fair point. ... the distance to go. Ball position always matters, both on offense and on defense, and sometimes it may be just as important to move the ball as to try for a 1st down.Agreed. I'd be interested in the difference between "3rd and long" and "3rd and very long" where "very long" may mean 20+ yards. 3DE is a stat that ignores 71% of the very thing it is attempting to measure. Third-and-one because it would be the third play of the series and they would still need one yard to get a first down.If the team with the ball can pick up one yard or more on the third-down play, then they will be given a first down, which means they get to start all over with a new set of four downs.If a team fails to gain the required yardage on third down, several things could happen on fourth down:After a team scores via a touchdown or field goal, they must, in turn, kick off to the other team, and the process begins all over again. It's a great indicator of a coach who is playing to not get embarrassed when he starts calling a lot of screen passes on 3rd and long. The longest down since 1994 was 3rd and 50 yards, faced by two teams: the Vikings vs. the Packers (12/20/99) and the Redskins vs. the Bengals (9/23/12).
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